Concepts and tools for the analysis of problems under uncertainty, focusing on model building and communication: the structuring, processing, and presentation of probabilistic information. Examples from legal, social, medical, and physical problems. Spreadsheets illustrate and solve problems as a complement to analytical closed-form solutions. Topics: axioms of probability, probability trees, random variables, distributions, conditioning, expectation, change of variables, and limit theorems.
CME 100 or MATH 51.
Recommended: knowledge of spreadsheets. Students may choose between three and four units for this course.